RELATED: Stephen Poloz’s journey from sunny to sour to so-so The occasion for the release was the end of the Bank of Canada’s latest review of whether it is on track to hit its inflation target. Policy makers opted to leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5 percent. That wasn’t a surprise. But those who thought Poloz was stuck in a permanent funk were caught off guard by a series of rosier descriptions of the economy. The central bank said the global economy, “continues to gain traction,” and that, “recent developments reinforce the bank’s view that growth will gradually strengthen and broaden.” The economy’s painful adjustment to lower oil prices is, “largely complete.” Recent economic data are, “encouraging,” including indicators of business investment, an important element of economic growth that has Canada|Weightlifting Chalk been depressed for years. The emphasis on business investment is significant because Poloz had been skeptical about the extent to which Canadian executives were ready to re-engage after years of weak commodity prices and mediocre demand. Some of that skepticism remains. The uncertainties that troubled the central bank in April, “continue to cloud the global and Canadian outlooks,” the statement said. The biggest one is trade. The Trump administration in recent weeks applied tariffs to imports of Canadian lumber, agreed to investigate charges that Bombardier is using government subsidies to sell its new plane at unfair prices, and triggered the legislative process that will lead to a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. It’s possible that worries about protectionism are overdone, but it would be foolish to assume exports will flow south as easily as they have in the past. The central bank has little choice but to continue to offset that uncertainty with rock-bottom borrowing costs.
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